Below is an extract of a post published on Guardian titled "Markets rebound as US jobs report misses forecasts – business live"
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Via: Guardian
Shares are recovering in Asia and Europe after Thursday’s rout, but investors are still nervous following the arrest of Huawei’s CFO Latest: FTSE 100 up 1.2% UK house prices growth slows Introduction: Huawei case weighs on markets China accuses US of hooliganism Asian markets have recovered some ground Coming up: US jobs report at 1.30pm 1.35pm GMT More disappointment! US wages only grew by 0.2% month-on-month in November, dashing hopes of a 0.3% rise. That’s a blow to US families in the run-up to the festive season. 1.32pm GMT BREAKING: The US economy created 155,000 new jobs last month, fewer than the 200,000 which Wall Street had expected. And in another blow, October’s figures was revised down to 237,000, from a first estimate of 250,000. 1.25pm GMT Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, predicts that shares will fall if the US jobs report beats forecasts….and rise if it misses. As he puts it on Bloomberg TV: Good equals bad, and bad equals good. 1.16pm GMT Word from the White House…. China talks are going very well! 1.12pm GMT As City traders grab a quick sandwich before the US jobs report (oh the glamour!), here’s a look at the markets. 1.08pm GMT A reminder of how the US monthly job-creation figures have bounced around in recent months: 12.55pm GMT The London stock exchange is holding onto most of its early gains, as City traders turn their attention across the Atlantic. China and the US continue to have frosty relations and this has seen investors prefer to stay away than get involved in what has proven to be a volatile market for quite some time now. This reversed the hope felt earlier in the week after it was announced the US would delay tariffs on China in the aim of making progress but it is now clear that this negativity will last until the new year.” 12.41pm GMT The Bank of England is already under fire over its warning about a no-deal Brexit. But it now faces another storm. The Bank is reportedly due to meet Calixto Ortega Sanchez, president of the Venezuelan Central Bank, and Simon Zerpa, the Venezuelan minister of finance, over the repatriation of 550 million US dollars (431 million) of gold. The Bank is the second largest depository of gold and has been holding Venezuela’s gold deposits since the 1980s. 12.07pm GMT Although the markets are up today, fears over the global economy haven’t gone away. Royal Bank of Canada have cautioned that Chinese trade data due out on Saturday should be watched very closely, for signs that export growth have dropped. There is compelling evidence that exports, which have surprised significantly to the upside in the last three months, have been boosted by front-loading ahead of successive tranches of tariffs. Export growth (in yuan terms) is expected to slow to 14% year-on-year from 20% previously (or from 16% to 9% in US dollar terms). 11.20am GMT The FTSE 250 index, which contains smaller UK-focused companies, is also recovering today. Related: No-deal Brexit would ‘devastate’ UK gaming industry, says report 10.32am GMT Paul Donovan of UBS Wealth Management believes the threat of new US tariffs on Chinese goods caused Thursday’s sell-off. But on the upside, he reckons today’s non-farm payroll jobs report will show American workers are in demand. Equity markets had a bad day on Thursday. The fear of additional US trade taxes is really not being well received, and investors seem to see the risk as rising. Otherwise, economic data was generally pretty good. Today’s US employment report is more likely to show firms struggling to find people to hire, than a lack of jobs available. 10.21am GMT Speaking of slowing economies…new data have confirmed that the eurozone only grew by 0.2% in the last quarter. The single currency bloc was dragged down by Germany, which contracted by 0.2%, and Italy which shrank by 0.1%. Euro area #GDP +0.2% in Q3 2018, +1.6% compared with Q3 2017 https://t.co/1i6OErjggo pic.twitter.com/KZrSTIXZQi 10.02am GMT Ralf Preusser, head of rates research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, says recent market instability is mainly due to concerns about the underlying global economy. That includes the impact of the US-China trade dispute, and worries that we are approaching the end of the economic cycle (ie, heading towards a recession) 9.41am GMT Consumer-facing firms, telecoms, tech and industrial companies are leading the rally in London: 9.27am GMT Good news! £27bn has been wiped back onto the value of Britain’s biggest companies this morning. 9.19am GMT Britain’s stock markets has now clawed back half of yesterday’s slump – while European markets are also holding onto their moderate gains. But after such a choppy few weeks in the markets, further swings must be likely. “A 1.6% rally in the FTSE 100 is welcome relief after yesterday’s horrible session, although this only claws back some of the losses. The important point to note is the large swings in the market on a daily basis in recent weeks, which may suggest volatility could become one of the key themes in 2019. “It would be possible to draw the conclusion that investors are overreacting to every little bit of information related to politics, economics and the markets. Ultimately it does tell you that investors are extremely nervous and confidence cannot be very high as we approach the end of the year. 9.03am GMT Several property experts are blaming Brexit uncertainty for the slowdown in UK property prices. Here’s Mike Scott, chief property analyst at estate agent Yopa, ‘This suggests that the usual Christmas slowdown in the housing market has started early this year, as people wait for the outcome of the current political turmoil before making long-term commitments, such as buying a new home. ‘However, the economic fundamentals of low unemployment, low interest rates, growing wages and limited supply are all positive for house prices, and we therefore expect the market to pick up again in the new year.’ “The lowest rate of growth for six years is a reflection of how Brexit uncertainty has hit the property market for six. “Without wanting to appear overly pessimistic, there’s every chance 2019 could be 2009 all over again.“People need to be preparing for that eventuality and the low level of transactions suggests they are. 8.40am GMT OUCH! UK house prices growth has slowed to a six year low. The Halifax has reported that the average house price declined by 1.4% in November, a substantial fall. On a quarterly basis, prices in September-November were 1.1% lower than in June-August. “House price growth has slowed as we approach the end of the year, falling from 1.5% in October to 0.3% in November, with the average cost of a home now £224,578. While this is the lowest rate of growth in six years, it remains within our forecast range of 0% to 3% for 2018. High employment, wage growth and historically low mortgage rates continue to make home ownership more affordable for many, though the need to raise a significant deposit still acts as something of a restraint on the market. This is largely offset by relatively limited supply of new and existing properties for sale, which continues to sustain house prices nationally.” 8.33am GMT Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says the markets are recovering today thanks to the last minute recovery on Wall Street last night. The European markets were granted a reprieve on Friday, the Dow Jones’ last minute retreat from the cliff edge on Thursday night paving the way for a greener end to the week. Though Beijing are very much displeased with the arrest of Huawei exec Meng Wanzhou – China’s media labelled her detention as ‘despicable’ – the fact the country nevertheless announced it was ‘immediately’ applying the trade truce measures agreed with the US appears to have helped reassure the markets that the relationship between the two superpowers hasn’t yet reverted back to its warmongering worst. 8.31am GMT Shares continue to climb in London, pushing the FTSE 100 index up by 80 points. All but three members of the Footsie have jumped this morning - quite a contrast with yesterday when all but three fell. 8.11am GMT Neil Wilson of Markets.com thinks the Brexit crisis has also hurt UK shares. The FTSE suffered a bruising session on Thursday, declining more than three per cent to close at 6,704.05. There is still lots of pressure on the UK. For the FTSE this is about more than trade wars and the Fed, there is a real political risk premium being factored into shares now as we approach the Brexit crunch. 8.10am GMT European stock markets have bounced back from their lowest levels in two years, as trading gets underway across the region. In the City, the FTSE 100 index has risen by 0.8%, or 55 points, to 6,758. 8.01am GMT China’s media are usually a good indication of how leaders in Beijing see an issue. And today, they’ve savaged the US over the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, calling it a ‘despicable’ attempt to undermine Chinese enterprise. State-run China Daily said the arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer appeared to be part of US efforts to contain the company, which is the world’s largest telecoms equipment provider, as well as its second-largest mobile phone maker. “One thing that is undoubtedly true and proven is the US is trying to do whatever it can to contain Huawei’s expansion in the world simply because the company is the point man for China’s competitive technology companies,” the editorial said. 7.55am GMT Asia-Pacific stock markets recovered after the Chinese government announced it would ‘immediately’ enforce measures agreed with the US under their trade war truce. Asian shares are moderately higher as worries over U.S.-China trade friction were calmed by conciliatory comments from Beijing. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.8 percent to 21,678.68, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4 percent to 5,681.50. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3 percent to 2,075.76. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged 0.1 percent lower to 26,133.53, while the Shanghai Composite was flat at 2,605.89. Shares also rose in India, Indonesia and Taiwan. 7.42am GMT Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. Related: £56bn wiped off FTSE 100 in biggest market fall since Brexit vote Markets breathe a sigh of relief following an afternoon rally on Wall St that erased most of day’s losses as investors grappled w/shifting indications on Sino-American trade talks & prospects for a pause in Fed tightening. 10y US yield holds around 2.90%. Oil lower ahead of Opec. pic.twitter.com/UI5RdUbW49 The wall of worry to hurdle for flipping to bullish sentiment is about as big as the Great Wall of China. Continue reading…
