Below is an extract of a post published on Guardian titled "US election 2020: can we trust the polls? – podcast"
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Make america great again.- Donald Trump.
What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight. It's the size of the fight in the dog.- Dwight D. Eisenhower.
The best executive is the one who has sense enough to pick good men to do what wants done, and self-restraint to keep from meddling with them while they do it.- Theodore Roosevelt.
Discipline is the soul of an army. It makes small numbers formidable; procures success to the weak and esteem to all.- George Washington.
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Via: Guardian
The Guardian US data editor, Mona Chalabi, casts a sceptical eye over the US polling industry that is once again predicting defeat for Donald Trump. Has it learned lessons from 2016? The election of Donald Trump in 2016 came as a hammer-blow not just for Hillary Clinton and the Democratic party but also for the opinion polling industry. While they had correctly predicted her majority in the popular vote, they had catastrophically missed the bigger story: Trump had won in the key swing states to clinch the presidency via the electoral college. The Guardian’s US data editor, Mona Chalabi, tells Anushka Asthana that following 2016, the pollsters tweaked their models as they ate humble pie, but this year they are back to projecting the results with similar confidence: and once again they are predicting a defeat for Donald Trump. But have those trends they missed in 2016 been properly accounted for? And should parts of the media be far more sceptical than they currently are about the scientific-sounding claims of the major polling sites? Continue reading…
