Below is an extract of a post published on Guardian titled "US economy smashes forecasts with 3.2% growth in last quarter - business live"
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Via: Guardian
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including first-quarter growth figures from America America’s economy grew by 3.2% (annualised) in last quarter Equivalent of 0.8% quarterly growth Earlier: UK mortgage approvals have picked up Introduction: How is US economy faring under Trump? RBS shares suffer after Brexit warning 1.46pm BST Wall Street is cheering these growth figures, as investors and analysts reassess the state of the US economy. Futures pop after Q1 GDP reading blows past estimates https://t.co/tRW2nyzvBX pic.twitter.com/OtXHNtuIbF Q1 #GDP much better than expected. What happened to “residual seasonality” and more importantly the negative effects of the government shutdown and US-China #tradewar? Could GDP have been over 4% if these factors were at play? https://t.co/ZhiS34Z7Az 1.44pm BST America’s habit of using annualised growth rates can be confusing for the rest of us. But a 3.2% annualised growth rate simply means the US grew by 0.8% in the first quarter. Good news for the US! “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019” Or as we would put it GDP rose by 0.8% in the quarter putting the US in the front rank right now. A 3.2-percent first quarter GDP print shows that the United States remains the cleanest, meanest…dirty shirt in the global economy - slowing, but not as much as its major counterparts. The dollar’s rally remains confoundingly intact. 1.39pm BST More key points from the US GDP report: US Q'1'19 GDP: Top line up 3.2%, real final sales 2.5%, final sales to domestic purchasers 1.4% final sales to private domestic purchasers 1.3%. Driven by massive increase of $128.4 billion in inventories which is not sustainable. Trade deficit narrowed. #GDP imports fall sharply in quarter, drop adds 0.58 pp to GDP growth 1.38pm BST America’s growth in the last quarter was driven by a pick-up in trade, and a swelling in company inventories. The Commerce Department also reports that government investment also rise, which also helped to push growth up to an annual rate of 3.2%. Trade & inventories help Q1 real #GDP to top forecasts at 3.2% 1.34pm BST Oh you beauty. US 1Q #GDP up 3.2% annualized. Above the top end of a very wide range of forecasts. 1.32pm BST NEWSFLASH: America’s economic growth accelerated sharply in the first quarter of this year. GDP expanded at an annual rate of 3.2% in January-March – up from an annual rate of 2.2% in the final three months of 2018. 1.17pm BST Just in: Oil giant Exxon has missed Wall Street expectations. The company has reported net income of $2.35bn, or 55 cents a share, for the last quarter – sharply down on $4.650bn, or $1.09 a share, a year ago. US Opening Calls:#DOW 26395 -0.26%#SPX 2921 -0.19%#NASDAQ 7787 -0.36%#IGOpeningCall 1.00pm BST Investors on both sides of the Atlantic, and beyond, are itching to discover how well, or badly, the US economy performed in the last quarter. Focus on U.S. GDP (Q1). We are looking for pretty decent data around 2.2% which should bolster our bullish USD view. Signs of avoiding a bigger slowdown are welcomed near / medium term. #USD $DXY #FX 12.58pm BST The 22 Debenhams store closures announced this morning put 1,200 jobs at risk. But the full total will be even higher, as the firm is aiming to shut 50 stores! Here’s the latest news: Related: Debenhams store closures put at least 1,200 jobs at risk 12.13pm BST Andy Bruce of Reuters has captured the latest signs of Brexit stockpiling (as discussed here) ANOTHER STOCKPILING RECORD UK factories stockpiled in early 2019 at the fastest pace since records began in the 1950s, according to today’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey. Chimes with the PMIs. pic.twitter.com/8fNGjUV6n9 12.01pm BST As the lunchtime gong rings across the City, the markets remain subdued ahead of the US GDP report. The FTSE 100 is lagging behind the rest of Europe, down 14 points (0.2%). Royal Bank of Scotland (-4.5%), Glencore (-3.3%) and Just Eat (-3.2%) are the top fallers, for reasons already discussed…. 11.56am BST Back in the markets, mining giant Glencore is under pressure after revealing it is under investigation over potential ‘corrupt practices’. It’s not clear exactly what America’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission suspects Glencore of doing, beyond violating parts of the Commodity Exchange Act. 11.27am BST Here’s Howard Archer of the EY Item Club on the surprise pick-up in UK mortgage lending last month: 11.18am BST UK warehouses are groaning after factory bosses stockpiled at a record rate in the last three months. So says the CBI, whose latest survey of UK industry shows that Brexit uncertainty has had a big impact this year. The three months to April saw an unprecedented acceleration in the growth of stocks held by the manufacturing sector…. Stocks of raw materials (+39%), work in progress (+21%), and finished goods (+25%) all grew at their fastest respective paces on record (since 1958 for raw materials and finished goods, and since 1977 for work in progress). 10.53am BST Ride-hailing company Uber has its critics (from workers who demand proper benefits to authorities who fear it is increasing congestion). But you can’t accuse it of lacking ambition; the firm is now aiming to be the biggest tech flotation since Facebook….. Related: Uber aims for stock market debut value of up to $90bn 10.32am BST Getting back to Royal Bank of Scotland’s latest results…. Russ Mould of AJ Bell reckons investors are disappointed that its net interest margin has fallen again. This is effectively the difference between the profit RBS makes on its loans, and the interest it pays to its own lenders (ie people who trust it with their savings). RBS is getting help here from central bank policies as low interest rates and Quantitative Easing keep borrowing costs low for consumers and corporations and make it easier for them to services their debts. But just as ZIRP (zero interest rate policies) and QE give with one hand, they are taking away with another, because the flat yield curve means banks are finding it hard to make a margin when they borrow money in the short-term and lend it out over the long term. “RBS’ net interest margin fell again and this weighed on profits once more. Nor does this situation look likely to change, given competition and central banks’ policy U-turn this year, with a slew of monetary authorities seemingly putting interest rate increases on hold until at least 2020, including the Bank of England. 10.10am BST Newsflash: stricken retail chain Debenhams has revealed the first 22 stores which will close following its plunge into administration. Related: Debenhams to close 22 stores: full list 10.05am BST Some snap reaction to the rise in UK mortgage approvals: UK Finance reports 42k mortgage approvals for house purchase in March, up 9%y/y, though UKF notes Mar-18 was a weak month. Comes off the back of HMRC reporting UK transactions up 0.4%y/y in March & the various house price indices between 1%y/y & -1%y/y. Still just bumping along. pic.twitter.com/6mPav19Nuf UK new mortgage approvals / RICS new buyers via @PantheonMacro One word: Yikes. pic.twitter.com/Iyil8Pv26Q 9.41am BST Newsflash: The number of new mortgages approved in the UK has hit a nine-month high. UK Finance, which represents British lenders, reports that 39,980 loans for house purchases were approved in March. #UnitedKingdom UK Finance Mortgage Approvals at 39.980K https://t.co/8XGCSGaZNz pic.twitter.com/8ooBETDHPm 9.26am BST Disappointing factory output data from Japan overnight is fuelling concerns over the global economy. Industrial production fell by 4.6% year-on-year in March, the steepest decline since May 2015 (and the second monthly fall in a row). Japan Industrial production -4.6 YoY (expected -3.8%) fastest drop since May 2015. MoM -0.9% (expected 0.00%) Another bad news for Asia Export and domestic economies pic.twitter.com/a2avoZcgHE Japan’s stocks look pressured by a weaker USD and some poor data where industrial production dropped at the fastest pace since 2015. 9.14am BST Daimler isn’t the only carmaker struggling right now – Volvo and PSA have also posted falling profits in the last quarter. Here’s the FT’s take: Daimler has reported a slump in first quarter earnings, as the German company joins other global carmakers plagued by falling sales in China and flat markets in the Europe and the US. The Stuttgart-based parent of Mercedes-Benz said earnings before interest and tax fell 16 per cent to €2.8bn from €3.3bn a year earlier. The result was ahead of an analyst forecast, provided by Refinitiv, of €2.6bn. 8.51am BST RBS and Just Eat have helped to pull the FTSE 100 down this morning. The blue-chip index has shed 18 points, or 0.25%, in a fairly subdued session so far. 8.43am BST Online takeaway firm Just Eat is also propping up the FTSE fallers this morning, after reporting slower growth in the UK. 8.31am BST Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland have fallen over 5% at the start of trading, after warning that Brexit uncertainty is hurting demand. Despite beating forecasts this morning with profits of £707m in the last quarter (down from £808m) RBS is the worst-performing FTSE 100 stock, down 11.3p at 238.5p. While we retain the outlook guidance we provided in the 2018 Annual Results document, we recognise that the ongoing impact of Brexit uncertainty on the economy, and associated delay in business borrowing decisions, is likely to make income growth more challenging in the near term. RBS first-quarter income falls less than expected Bank says Brexit uncertainty will weigh on revenue in coming months 8.12am BST German carmaker Daimler has joined the ranks of auto firms suffering from weak demand in China, and a lacklustre global economy. “Achieving the financial targets for 2019 has not become easier since the first quarter. “We now have to work hard to achieve our targets for 2019. 8.01am BST Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. Related: Microsoft becomes third listed US firm to be valued at $1tn Related: Amazon makes $1bn a month as growth slows RBS earnings: £707 million for Q1 net profit, vs £792 million last year https://t.co/rwX57UIKFW Continue reading…
